NEW BLOOD TEST CAN PREDICT FUTURE BREAST CANCER

According to the World Health Organization, breast cancer is one of the most common cancer in women both in the developed and less developed world, and in the long term the scientists hope that the new method will lead to better prevention and early treatment of the disease.

The method is better than mammography, which can only be used when the disease has already occurred. It is not perfect, but it is truly amazing that we can predict breast cancer years into the future," said Rasmus Bro, a professor of chemometrics in the Department of Food Science at University of Copenhagen. He stressed the method has been tested and validated only for a single population (cohort) and needs to be validated more widely before it can be used practically.

A new way of detecting diseases

Nevertheless, the method could create a paradigm shift in early diagnosis of breast cancer as well as other diseases.

"The potential is that we can detect a disease like breast cancer much earlier than today. This is important as it is easier to treat if you discover it early. In the long term, it will probably also be possible to use similar models to predict other diseases," said Lars Ove Dragsted, a professor of biomedicine in the Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports.

The method has been developed in cooperation with the Danish Cancer Society and the study was recently published in Metabolomics.

Food science showed the way

The researchers' approach to developing the method was adopted from food science, where it is used for control of complex industrial processes. Basically, it involves handling and analysing huge amounts of biological data in a holistic and explorative way. The researchers analysed all compounds a blood sample contains instead of -- as is often done in health and medical science -- examining what a single biomarker means in relation to a specific disease.

"When a huge amount of relevant measurements from many individuals is used to assess health risks -- here breast cancer -- it creates very high quality information. The more measurements our analyses contain, the better the model handles complex problems," continued Professor Rasmus Bro.

The model does not reveal anything about the importance of the single biomarkers in relation to breast cancer, but it does reveal the importance of a set of biomarkers and their interactions.

"No single part of the pattern is actually necessary nor sufficient. It is the whole pattern that predicts the cancer," said Professor Dragsted.

A metabolic blood profile describes the amounts of all compounds (metabolites) in our blood. The scientists measured metabolic blood profiles for this project. When you are in a pre-cancer state, the pattern for how certain metabolites are processed apparently changes.

While a mammography can detect newly developed breast cancer with a sensitivity of 75 per cent, the new metabolic blood profile is able to predict the likelihood of a woman developing breast cancer within the next two to five years with a sensitivity of 80 per cent.

Based on population study

The research is based on a population study of 57,000 people followed by the Danish Cancer Society over 20 years. The participants were first examined in 1994-96, during which time their weight and other measurements were recorded and they answered a questionnaire. They also provided a blood sample that was stored in liquid nitrogen.

The scientists used the 20-year-old blood samples and other available data from 400 women who were healthy when they were first examined but who were diagnosed with breast cancer two to seven years after providing the first sample, and from 400 women who did not develop breast cancer.

The method was also used to test a different dataset of women examined in 1997. Predictions based on the new set of data matched the first dataset, which indicates the validity of the model.

CHILDS POOR DECISION MAKING SKILLS CAN PREDICT LATER BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS

Children who show poor decision-making skills at age 10 or 11 may be more likely to experience interpersonal and behavioral difficulties that have the potential to lead to high-risk health behavior in their teen years, according to a new study from Oregon State University psychology professor.

These findings suggest that less-refined decision skills early in life could potentially be a harbinger for problem behavior in the future," said Joshua Weller, an assistant professor in the School of Psychological Science in OSU's College of Liberal Arts.

However, if poor decision-making patterns can be identified while children are still young, parents, educators and health professionals may have an opportunity to intervene and help those children enhance these skills, said Weller, who studies individual differences in decision-making.

"This research underscores that decision-making is a skill and it can be taught," he said. "The earlier you teach these skills, the potential for improving outcomes increases."

His findings were published recently in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. Co-authors are Maxwell Moholy of Idaho State University and Elaine Bossard and Irwin P. Levin of the University of Iowa. The research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.

The researchers wanted to better understand how pre-adolescent children's decision-making skills predicted later behavior. To do so, they conducted follow-up assessments with children who had participated in a previous decision-making study.

About 100 children, ages 10 and 11, participated in the original study, where they answered questions that helped assess their decision-making skills. They were evaluated based on how they perceived the risks of a decision, their ability to use appropriate decision-making rules and whether their confidence about a decision matched their actual knowledge on a subject.

For the new study, researchers invited the original study participants -- now 12 and 13 years old -- and their parents back for a follow-up. In all, 76 children ages participated in the second study, which included a behavior assessment that was completed by both the parent and the child.

The behavior assessment included questions about emotional difficulties, conduct issues such as fighting or lying and problems with peers. Those kinds of behavioral issues are often linked to risky health behavior for teens, including substance abuse or high-risk sexual activity, Weller said.

Researchers compared each child's scores from the initial decision-making assessment to the child's and their parent's behavioral reports. They found that children who scored worse on the initial decision-making assessment were more likely to have behavioral problems two years later.

"Previous studies of decision-making were retrospective," Weller said. "To our knowledge, this is the first research to suggest how decision-making competence is associated with future outcomes."

The research provides new understanding about the possible links between decision-making and high-risk behavior, Weller said. It also underscores the value of teaching decision-making and related skills such as goal-setting to youths. Some interventions have demonstrated promise in helping children learn to make better decisions, he said.

In another recent study, Weller and colleagues studied the decision-making tendencies of at-risk adolescent girls who had participated in an intervention program designed to reduce substance abuse and other risky behavior. The program emphasized self-regulation, goal-setting and anger management.

The study found that girls who received the intervention in fifth-grade demonstrated better decision-making skills when they were in high school than their at-risk peers who did not participate in the intervention program.

"Most people can benefit from decision-making training. Will it always lead to the outcome you wanted? No," Weller said. "However, it boils down to the quality of your decision-making process."

That is something that parents and other adults can help children learn. For instance, a parent can talk about difficult decisions with a child. By exploring multiple points of view or showing other people's perspectives on the issue, the child learns to consider different perspectives, he said.

"Following a good process when making decisions can lead to more favorable outcomes over time," Weller said. "Focus on the quality of the decision process, rather than the outcome."